Bluesky falls behind Threads and Twitter with only 2 million users

As of 5:38 a.m. on November 13, there were 2 million and 187 people registered on Bluesky. Proof that the decentralized social network is less and less empty, as the migration of many Twitter followers has proven.

However, it’s all about scale. The milestone of 2 million registrants is symbolically beautiful. However, it must be put into perspective with other social networks and their own census methodologies. As it stands, even if 2 million people have responded to invitations, Bluesky remains a tiny bubble in the ocean that is the Internet.

Bluesky is as community-oriented as it is small

First important thing: Bluesky does not have 2 million active users, but 2 million registered users. This way of calculating does not correspond to industry codes, which usually count in DAU or MAU (Daily/Monthly Active Users). The only recent exception is Threads, which had claimed 100 million subscribers in five days, but which now communicates on its active users monthly. Four months later, Threads is used by 100 million people every month, which means that it has lost several million along the way (since the registration curve has continued to increase).

What is the actual use of Bluesky? The company announces that 160,000 people publish content daily on the site, an increase of 60% since the first million registrants. Do you see the problem? The curve is not exponential. The second million are less active than the first, which can easily suggest that there are far fewer than 2 million who visit Bluesky regularly. Many wanted invitations out of curiosity, but didn’t switch.

And Mastodon? In October 2023, the other decentralized network exceeded 8 million registered, for just under 2 million active users. Even with four times more users than Bluesky, the mammoth has little credibility compared to Twitter or Threads.

For further

Why does Bluesky look so alive?

A question then arises: why do people who left X for Bluesky feel so much like they are living again? Why does the engagement rate on Bluesky seem higher than on Twitter, despite having hundreds of millions fewer users?

The most obvious answer is undoubtedly a community bubble phenomenon. For example, the proportion of Bluesky usage among journalists formerly on Twitter is surely much higher than the average Bluesky usage among other Twitter users. Same thing with fans of new technologies. Immediate consequence: it is easier to shine among other journalists and geeks on Bluesky, since the probability that the publication will interest those registered is greater.

Bluesky undoubtedly has advantages for the debate, but will it ever have the information capacity of Twitter? To find out, you will have to wait for the end of the invitation system. If Bluesky grows as exponentially as Threads, then maybe it will have its chance. Otherwise, the war will be between Twitter and Meta. Another question: can the arrival of Threads in Europe eclipse Bluesky?