Musk: In the future, the number of robots on the earth will exceed that of human beings, and there will be no shortage of materials.

Fast Technology News on July 6, at the opening ceremony of the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his views on the humanoid robot Optimus, autonomous driving, artificial intelligence and other fields.

Musk said: “Once China is determined to do something, it will be able to do it well. This is the case in all industries, including artificial intelligence. China will have strong artificial intelligence capabilities.”

Musk also mentioned that now may be the most profound period in human history. Tesla’s humanoid robots are still in the development stage and are in a relatively early stage, but there will be a lot of robots in the future.

The ratio of robots to humans seems to be more than 1:1 at a certain stage.That is to say, the number of robots on the earth in the future will exceed the number of humans.

The following is the transcript of the speech:

Hello everyone.

I think artificial intelligence will play a very profound role and influence on human beings in the future, including civilization. We have also seen the explosive growth of digital computing power. The most critical indicator to consider is a “ratio” – the ratio of digital computing machine computing power to biological computing power.

What does that mean? It is how powerful calculations can be done by humans, how powerful calculations can be done by computers and machines, then what is the ratio of computing power between computers and humans? The ratio is getting higher and higher every year, what does it mean?

The gap between the computing power of machines and creatures is further widening, which means that after a period of time, the proportion of artificial intelligence in all intelligence will become lower and lower. Compared with machine intelligence, this will It is a fundamental and in-depth change, and the impact it brings is difficult to understand now.

However, it may be said that this is the most profound period in human history. Tesla’s Optimus robot is still in the development stage, and it is still relatively early, but in the future we will have a lot of robots, and we need to consider the issue of ratio immediately – the ratio of robots to humans is What?

It seems that the next stage will exceed 1:1, which means that the number of robots on the earth will exceed the number of humans.

Their computing power is much stronger, so this seems to be a developing trend, which will have positive effects and some negative effects.

The positive impact is that we will enter a “post-shortage era” where there will be no more shortages,This era will be an era of abundance, as long as you want what you want, you can get it immediately.

Because there are many robots in the future world, its production efficiency will be much higher than that dominated by humans, so this is a very big and profound change, so we must be careful to ensure its final The results are helpful to humanity.

But the existing development trend, for example, in the field of Tesla humanoid robots, we also see that there will be more and more robots in the future.

Optimus humanoid robot can help people do some work. It is not very intelligent, but it is intelligent enough to do some boring, repetitive and dangerous work that humans are unwilling to do. This is our purpose.

One of the goals of the Optimus humanoid robot is to do these things that humans don’t want to do, so this may still be quite useful. I don’t want to be overconfident or optimistic that Tesla Optimus will be very important, but in terms of autonomous driving, Tesla is very interested in sharing and licensing its own autonomous driving technology to other automakers.

We think technology licensing is a very useful technology,I also think that the boring process of letting everyone drive is a complete flop, and it is beyond the times.

And we will also see that the usage rate of cars will increase greatly. Under normal circumstances, a family car is used for about 10 to 20 hours a week, and most of the time is spent lying on the parking lot, but for fully automatic driving For a car, it may be used for 50 to 60 hours a week, a total of 168 hours a week, so the utilization rate of fully automatic driving vehicles must be five times faster than that of non-autonomous driving vehicles.

At Tesla, we also want to provide such technology, which is why we are willing to license these fully self-driving technologies to other automakers for use.

So what is the current state of our autonomous driving? We feel that we are very close to the state of full self-driving without human intervention. We have tested it on the roads of the United States. Human intervention is rarely needed now, so I will drive another Tesla using the latest FDS full self-driving In the beta version of the technical system, basically there is no need to touch the steering wheel to go from point a to point b.

So although it is still a prediction, I think the realization of fully automatic driving, or this level 4 to 5 fully automatic driving, will probably be realized later this year.

I’ve been wrong about my predictions before, but I feel like I’m closer to reality than ever before.

Another point is that we should remain worried about this kind of deep and comprehensive artificial intelligence, especially fully automatic driving vehicles. For example, in this example, it is difficult for us to do full-scale artificial intelligence with limited AI. Self-driving cars, but we think we can solve them soon. I have predicted that fully automatic driving will be realized later this year, and I cannot guarantee it 100%, but the trend is to realize fully automatic driving later this year, but this The situation of a limited artificial intelligence is completely different from that of a comprehensive artificial intelligence.

Total artificial intelligence is hard to define. Comprehensive artificial intelligence is a type of artificial intelligence that is much smarter than humans can do in any aspect, and smarter in any field. Tesla is not doing research in this area, and other companies are doing comprehensive research. Research on artificial intelligence, but I think this is what we need to consider, it is very important now, there needs to be some supervision to supervise them, so as to ensure this very deep artificial intelligence.

The kind of artificial intelligence I’m talking about is a bit close to tens of thousands or even millions of the most advanced high-performance computerscollaborate in a data center to produce a super intelligent combination.

Such a superintelligence has powerful capabilities, stronger than humans, which is a concern. It may have a very positive future, but there is also a probability that there will be some negative futures. We must do our best to ensure these negative ones The future will not happen, then the positive future will happen.

There are a lot of smart people in China. I have always admired the wisdom and drive of the Chinese people. Once China is determined to do one thing, it will definitely be able to do a good job in this industry. This is true of all industries in various economic fields, including the artificial intelligence industry of course. I believe China will have strong AI capabilities, this is my prediction.

Thank you very much for inviting me to attend today’s event and express some opinions online. We hope that you find these opinions interesting. Thanks again to friends in Shanghai and Secretary Chen. I look forward to participating in the next session offline.