In 2019, Samsung, the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, and Huawei, the second largest, both launched foldable screen phones. At that time, many people believed that the smartphone market, which had been homogenized for a long time, was about to usher in a new growth category.
Just as variable refresh rate screens and under-screen fingerprints have quickly become popular on smartphones in the past, many people expect foldable screen phones to quickly become popular and become the mainstream of the industry like the large-screen phones of the past.
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But five years later, foldable screens are still a niche among smartphones, even though their price has dropped by more than 10,000 yuan.
Folding screens are still not popular
According to TrendForce data,In 2023, global shipments of foldable phones will reach 15.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for only about 1.4% of the overall smartphone market that year.
In the Chinese market, the share of foldable screens is not high either. According to IDC data, China's foldable screen mobile phone shipments in 2023 will be about 7.007 million units, a year-on-year increase of 114.5%. Although the growth rate is much higher than the global market, it only accounts for 2.4% of the Chinese mobile phone market.
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Even in the high-end market, foldable screen phones with their high price halo are not mainstream. According to iResearch, the share of foldable screens in China's high-end mobile phone market (＞$600) will be only 9% in 2023.
The growth space for foldable phones seems to be gradually slowing down. TrendForce predicts that the shipment of foldable phones will be about 17.7 million units in 2024, an increase of 11%. The share of foldable phones in the mobile phone market will rise slightly to 1.5%, which is still lower than market expectations.
Since the release of the iPhone in 2007, the appearance of smartphones has basically not changed much. The only trend closest to foldable screens is the popularity of large-screen mobile phones.
In 2011, Samsung launched the Galaxy Note, which had a 5.3-inch screen, making it the world's largest smartphone. At the time, Jobs insisted that “3.5 inches is the most suitable for human hand usage” and was reluctant to launch a large-screen iPhone.
However, the large-screen trend started by Samsung quickly swept the entire smartphone market. Android manufacturers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo followed suit. The ever-increasing sales also proved that large-screen mobile phones are more in line with user needs.
Finally, in 2014, Apple launched its first large-screen iPhone, the iPhone 6. Since then, no mainstream manufacturer has launched a smartphone with a screen smaller than 4.5 inches. It took only three years for large screens to become a consensus among the industry and users, and it continues to this day. Even the iPhone 13 mini, which was dubbed “mini” in the past two years, has a 6.1-inch screen, much larger than the previous 3.5 inches.
The biggest advantage of foldable screens is that they can enlarge the screen based on conventional straight-screen mobile phones. So why have foldable screens not been able to become popular as quickly as large-screen mobile phones once were?
Large folding products are difficult to reduce costs, while small folding products become fashionable
Currently, there are two main types of foldable screen mobile phones: large foldable screen – vertical foldable screen (also called book page foldable screen); small foldable screen – horizontal foldable screen (also called clamshell foldable screen), and they all have their own difficulties.
The earliest foldable screen mobile phones on the market, Samsung Galaxy Fold and Huawei Mate X series, are all large foldable screens. Compared with candy-bar mobile phones, the biggest advantage of large foldable screens is visible to the naked eye – you can get a larger screen when unfolded.
The disadvantages are that the stability of the folding hinge is high, the flexible screen is expensive, and there is an extra large screen compared to a straight-screen phone. According to Cailianshe, in the folding screen industry chain, the cost of structural parts (mainly hinges/hinges) and display (flexible screen) account for 22% and 34% of the total cost respectively. Due to these two major cost constraints, the price of large folding screens has remained high.
In 2019, the starting price of Huawei Mate X was 16,999 yuan. When the Mate X5 was launched last year, the starting price dropped by 4,000 yuan, but it was still as high as 12,999 yuan. The same is true for Samsung. In 2019, the starting price of Samsung Galaxy Fold was 15,999 yuan, and the latest model last year was 12,999 yuan. In comparison, the highest price of iPhone 15 Pro Max launched at the same time was 13,999 yuan.
Samsung and Huawei have always been the two largest manufacturers in the foldable screen market, with global market shares of 60.4% and 19.8% respectively in 2023, accounting for 80% of the global foldable screen market. The two largest manufacturers both have high prices, which is enough to show that large foldable screens are still very far away from ordinary users.
There are also cheap large folding screens. For example, the starting price of OPPO Find N2 is 7,999 yuan, and the starting price of Honor Magic V2 is 8,999 yuan, but their “cheapness” is obviously only relative to Samsung and Huawei.
High price and high maintenance cost are two huge obstacles to the popularization of large foldable screens.
On the other hand, the price of small folding screens is much lower. The starting price of Nubia Flip released in April this year is only 2,999 yuan, which is only 1/3-1/4 of the price of large folding screens. So why is such a cheap small folding screen not popular?
In terms of functionality, the small folding screen folds up and down, so it completely loses the large screen advantage of the large folding screen. The only functionality worth mentioning is that it is smaller and easier to carry when folded.
Therefore, the small folding phone is more like the flip phone of the past, with almost no difference in function from other mobile phones, but it can show the user's taste, preferences, etc. Nowadays, all manufacturers have tacitly built the small folding phone as a fashion product. Whether it is the appearance design or brand marketing, it is getting closer and closer to a fashion item rather than a pure electronic product.
IDC China senior analyst Guo Tianxiang also said: “The usage scenarios of vertical folding products have not yet been fully discovered. Products that target potential users as 'fashionable young women' will directly compete with Apple.”
In 2023, the market share of large foldable screens in China will be 68.1%, while small foldable screens will account for only about 30%. IDC analysis believes that vertical foldable products, in addition to being easy to carry, still lack the necessary usage scenarios for consumers. The user experience is also significantly different from that of candy-bar phones at the same price, and there is still room for improvement in product quality.
In addition, whether it is a large fold or a small fold, screen creases, product durability, weight, etc. are also disadvantages of foldable screen phones compared to straight-screen phones.
In general, there are two main reasons why foldable screen mobile phones are difficult to popularize. First, the current selling price and after-sales costs of foldable screen mobile phones are still relatively high, and have not yet reached the sweet spot of consumers; second, foldable screen mobile phones have not shown unique advantages in functionality, so at a higher price, users have less motivation to change their phones.
What will be the fate of foldable phones?
In fact, if we put aside factors such as price and after-sales service, consumers' acceptance of foldable screens is not low.
According to a survey by market research firm Counterpoint Research, in China, among users who have purchased smartphones priced at more than US$400, as many as 64% are considering foldable phones in their next purchase plan, of which 20% have clearly stated that they will buy foldable phones, and the other 44% are weighing both candy-bar phones and foldable phones.
Android users are more interested in foldable phones, reaching 71%, while the proportion of iOS users is 58%. In the survey, existing foldable phone users have a higher willingness to buy foldable phones, and most of them are willing to continue using this emerging mobile phone form factor.
The survey also explored consumers' expectations for large foldable phones. About 70% of respondents believed that the weight of foldable screen phones should be similar to or lighter than the smartphones they are currently using. Regarding thickness, most respondents believed that large foldable phones should be no thicker than 10-12 mm when folded. At the same time, most users are willing to pay RMB 7,000 to 8,000 for large foldable devices.
This shows that, at least in China, consumers have a high interest in foldable screen mobile phones, and there are many potential users of foldable screen mobile phones.
TrendForce believes that the subsequent development of the foldable phone market depends on the speed of cost optimization. Among them, key components such as UTG (flexible screen) and hinges may be mass-produced after specifications are unified, thereby effectively reducing costs.
In addition, shipments of foldable panels from Chinese panel manufacturers have begun to increase, giving them a price advantage over Korean manufacturers. This is expected to further reduce the cost of foldable phones, allowing brand owners to accelerate market penetration by lowering prices.
In general, the market demand for foldable screen mobile phones is not low, but due to the product characteristics of foldable screens, a very high price has been paid to achieve the “folding screen”. Even after 5 years, a large-scale, low-cost commercial solution has not been found, so it is naturally difficult to popularize.
The good news is that just as large-screen mobile phones became popular, Apple is also exploring foldable screen products. Recently, Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple is expected to launch a foldable screen Macbook in 2026. However, the bad news is that its cost may be close to the current Vision Pro.
But no matter what, as the only brand among the world's top five mobile phone manufacturers that has not launched a foldable screen mobile phone, if Apple can join the foldable screen army, it will inevitably bring new growth to the industry.
