Therefore, your electricity price is controlled more by wind than cold – more wind power on the way

ENERGY

The wind is significantly more important for the electricity price than the outside temperature. The effect is greatest in southern Sweden. For every meter per second of more wind, the electricity price falls by up to 15 öre, a new study shows.

That the price of electricity falls with more wind production or warmer weather is perhaps not particularly surprising. But now it is black and white how much, according to an analysis from Energiforsk.

On average over the year, wind power accounts for around 20 percent of Swedish electricity production, with large fluctuations. With that premise, Energiforsk has counted on the price effect of increasing winds.

Wind power is being expanded

On average in the country, the price drops by 11 öre/kWh for every meter per second that the wind increases, or vice versa.

Wind power has been greatly expanded in recent years. Even more is on the way.

– Then the price becomes even more volatile, says Rickard Sandberg, docent and responsible for the measurements at the Center for Data Analysis at the Stockholm School of Economics.

The results can be used, among other things, for those who plan to build new wind farms.

– Or for consumers who want to make a decision on whether they should fix the electricity price or not, says Rickard Sandberg.

Even bigger swings

He has also measured how the outside temperature, i.e. the demand for electricity, affects the price. A temperature change of one degree changes the electricity price by an average of 4 öre/kWh. Here the difference is greatest in southern Sweden, 8 öre more expensive for every degree the temperature drops.

The supply of wind production is therefore more important than the demand (temperature) for the price.

– It is a little surprising that the difference was so large, says Rickard Sandberg.

Wind power has the biggest impact in electricity price area 3 (Svealand and northern Götaland). Then the price falls by 15 öre/kWh for every meter per second that the wind increases in strength. The impact will be least in Norrland, 6-7 öre, according to the study, which is based on daily data between September 2022 and August 2023. It is also in the southern half of the country that the electricity price moves the most.