Listening to the boss of the Stellantis group, only a few automobile groups could survive the coming years. But which ones and why?
In a context where competition is increasingly tough, all current automobile manufacturers will certainly not be able to survive over time. Imagining that there will only be 5 manufacturers left within 10 years seems to be a particularly pessimistic vision of the automobile market. However, this is what the boss of the Stellantis group, Carlos Tavares, indicated during a television interview on France 2May 16.
Advertisement
Should we really fear for the survival of certain automobile manufacturers in such a short time frame? Probably not. However, the market risks gradually concentrating around the strongest groups.
Who are the 5 potential manufacturers?
To the journalist’s question “ How many manufacturers will survive? », the boss of Stellantis responds without procrastination: “ From my point of view, in 10 years, there will be around 5 manufacturers left… Including Stellantis, I assure you. »
There will probably remain an element of mystery in this declaration, because the boss of Stellantis only distinctly cited 4 manufacturers:
- Tesla, not directly named, but presented as “ large American manufacturer of electric cars » ;
- Toyota, or at least “ a large group like Toyota » ;
- BYD, or “ a large Chinese manufacturer like BYD » ;
- Stellantis.
The fifth could just as easily be Volkswagen, as another American group or any other manufacturer well established throughout the world.
Advertisement
Natural selection in the coming years
“ The coming decade is a Darwinian decade “, says Carlos Tavares. This implies that natural selection will take place and drastically reduce the number of groups that will dominate the automobile market.
In the company manager's projection, a group like Renault will not be able to survive in the years to come. This is not the first time that the boss of Stellantis has been particularly pessimistic with the Renault group brands, which he quite easily imagines being bought by a Chinese manufacturer like Geely.
The cause of this disappearance of certain groups? The scale effect. Some manufacturers will face insufficient volumes to be cost competitive, so that the middle classes can continue to buy new vehicles.
A speech that contrasts somewhat with the reality on the ground. If Stellantis beats Renault on global volumes and on the margins displayed in the financial results, Renault is much better at making itself more affordable for the budget of the middle classes than the different brands offered by Stellantis. But this is not the first time that Carlos Tavares imagines that his vehicles are better positioned in terms of prices than those of competitors. Last time, it was the comparison with Tesla which was a little too fantasized in favor of Stellantis.