Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published a new research note in which he makes some Vision Pro predictions. Kuo expects Vision Pro shipments in the first year to be below market expectations. He’s also not sure that a rumored low-cost version could arrive next year.
Kuo makes four points about Apple’s Vision Pro ahead of the $3,500 mixed reality headset’s debut in early 2024.
First, he expects maximum production capacity next year to be between 400,000 and 600,000 units. This is below the 1 million units expected by the market, he said. However, this is not the first time we have seen such figures discussed.
As for a cheaper version of the Vision Pro, which is a non-Pro version with few bells and whistles, Kuo says Apple may have canceled that plan for now.
“Apple may have canceled the plan for a low-cost version of Vision Pro (market expected to launch in 2025),” he writes. “Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the expected significant growth in Vision Pro shipments beginning in 2025 may not materialize.”
Vision Pro 2
Kuo further predicts that Apple’s Vision Pro successor won’t arrive until the second half of 2027 at the earliest. This means that the Vision Pro hardware unveiled in June 2023 could be what ships in the next few years.
His final point is that Apple’s headset “may take longer than the market expects to become the next star iPhone product.” Kuo frames the challenge as convincing customers why they need spatial computing, not that the user experience is done well.
There’s probably no consensus on when the Vision Pro will become an iPhone-sized hit. The debate is still raging over whether the Vision Pro could be Apple’s next iPhone.
However, this is a debate about the long term. Apple will sell as many Vision Pro devices as it can produce. The high price means little given the low production capacity.
Apple might even leave money on the table in the first year. Why offer a cheaper version or upgrade the original if you can’t meet demand with OG Pro?
You can read our how-to guide to Vision Pro here. Apple says the product will be released in the US early next year.