Is Vision Pro the next iPhone, or an expensive technology vase?
This issue has been debated since Apple released Vision Pro at WWDC on June 6, 2023. Nearly a year has passed, and it is almost difficult to reach a consensus about it, whether it is the technology industry or ordinary users, whether it is people who buy and use it, or people who have only learned about it on the Internet.
Advertisement
For products with obvious technical and product features and polarized public evaluations, most of the time there will be a consensus that is not a consensus – time will tell everything. Those who support Vision Pro regard time as a silent weapon, while those who criticize Vision Pro expect that the “emperor's new clothes” will be peeled off by time.
A year is not a long time, but it is not a short time in the ever-changing consumer electronics industry. It has been nearly a year since Vision Pro was released. Can we see it clearly now?
Why do people like to compare Vision Pro to iPhone?
At last year's press conference, Apple CEO Cook said that Vision Pro would “open the era of spatial computing.” In 2007, Jobs defined the original iPhone as “reinventing the mobile phone.” In comparison, Jobs seemed humble.
Advertisement
The reason why the outside world frequently compares the Vision Pro and the original iPhone is largely because the two faced very similar controversies when they were first launched.
The first-generation iPhone relied on its multi-touch screen and the epoch-making OS Strong mobile devices.
But on the other hand,Its screen is 3.5 inches, and its battery life can only be used for about 5 hours, which is far inferior to the multi-day battery life of a functional phone;There is no physical keyboard, and it has been criticized for “typing on glass” and the text input efficiency is very low. The huge screen makes it extremely unresistant to falling, like a “vase”.
Vision Pro is like this: it has the best display technology available today and can achieve unparalleled 3D stereoscopic video. Almost everyone who has experienced it is impressed; it uses gestures, eye movements and voice control for precision and convenience. The speed is far higher than other VR/AR; it is equipped with the new visionOS operating system, has a new interaction mode and UI design, and lowers the threshold for using virtual reality devices.
On the other hand, Vision Pro weighs more than 600g, and almost everyone who uses it for a long time will not give good comments about its wearing experience; when using an external battery, it can only be used for about 2 hours, and it can even be watched to the end “Avengers” has been released for nearly a year, and almost no major manufacturers have developed or adapted applications for it.
From an analogy point of view, the Vision Pro has received almost the same evaluation as the original iPhone: their strengths are very long, so long that only it can provide such functions in the entire industry, such as both having a new way of interaction; their shortcomings are Very short, they can even be called semi-finished products compared to their peers. For example, both can only last a few hours of battery life.
So, can we say that Vision Pro is the next iPhone? Not yet.
Is it the next iPhone?
Historically, there have been many “shooting star” products that were stunning at first but then disappeared into the dust. In 2011, Google's smart glasses Google Glass was no less popular than the current Vision Pro, but this product was discontinued last year and its entire life cycle was only 12 years. Even Apple launched the world's first tablet computer, Newton, in 1993.
Now that 17 years have passed since the release of the original iPhone, we can clearly understand why the iPhone can create a wave of smartphones – its strengths greatly outweigh its shortcomings. We often use the “barrel effect” to describe a product, saying that the short board determines the lower limit of a product, but this sentence actually ignores the significance of the long board to the upper limit.
Compared with other mobile phones of the same era, the shortcomings of the iPhone are very obvious, but its extremely excellent longboards allow it to fill the bucket with more water even when the shortcomings are obvious – enlarging its advantage range as much as possible, Let users love iPhone more than they hate its shortcomings. Like a tilted bucket.
The first-generation iPhone did this perfectly: the brand-new operating system allowed children to intuitively and smoothly control the phone; it could listen to songs, watch videos, make phone calls, and send text messages, perfectly integrating entertainment and business; the new browser and other Internet tools allowed Internet surfing on mobile phones has become as easy as PC, which greatly improves the efficiency of Internet surfing.
In short, the perfect display of interactive methods, great entertainment satisfaction, and greatly improved Internet efficiency gave the first-generation iPhone far more capabilities than contemporary mobile phones, and they were all mobile phones, MP3s, MP4s, and even personal computers. It focuses on the core functions rather than scraps, so users ignore its shortcomings. This is also the core reason why smartphones represented by iPhone can replace feature phones.
More importantly, the so-called “shortcomings” of the original iPhone were only compared with the feature phones of the time, and were not inherent flaws that violated human usage habits. For example, although the battery life of several hours is very short compared to that of feature phones, it has almost no impact on daily phone use, watching videos, listening to music, etc. After users develop the habit of charging, the battery life of several days is meaningless to most people; The lack of resistance to falling is also compensated by mobile phone protective cases and changes in user habits.
A real-life example is that only half a year after the release of the original iPhone, Google’s internal data showed that during the Christmas period of 2007,For the first time, visits to Google's website from iPhones exceeded those from other phone models.
According to data released by market research organization IDC at the time,The iPhone only accounts for 2% of the global smartphone market, which is far lower than its other “predecessors” – Symbian mobile phones hold a steady 63% share, and Microsoft Windows Mobile accounts for 11%.
Therefore, although the media had mixed reviews of the iPhone at that time, users who actually purchased the iPhone had already proven the outstanding power of its product with their data.
So, on Vision Pro, can we see similar performance that the long board far exceeds the short board? the answer is negative.
As mentioned above, the advantages of Vision Pro mainly focus on the visual experience and interaction methods, and the actual performance is indeed far superior to the current VR/AR. From the perspective of the VR/AR industry, Vision Pro is undoubtedly an excellent product, but VR/AR is a niche device, and it is not at the same level as the mobile phone market that the original iPhone faced with sales of billions of units every year.
For this reason, Apple defines it as the “next generation space computing device”, and its mission is to replace personal computers or smartphones and become a new generation of national products.
If you compare smartphones, you will find thatThe so-called 3D video, air interaction, etc. on Vision Pro do not pose a substantial threat to smartphones because the two are completely different.
Moreover, the experience on Vision Pro can be called “innovative”, but in terms of operating efficiency, there is almost no advantage compared to smartphones. For example, air-to-air operation has no efficiency improvement compared to touch operation, but it is just better than other VR/AR products. For another example, in the office and Internet scenarios mentioned at the Apple press conference, Vision Pro just placed a few more windows in the space.
On the other hand, the shortcomings of the Vision Pro are not as dispensable as the original iPhone, but very fatal. The Vision Pro only has about two hours of battery life even when connected to an external battery. It is even difficult to watch a slightly longer movie, but the film and television experience is one of its core selling points. Although the first-generation iPhone has a short battery life, it does not affect normal use. .
The Vision Pro is too heavy, making it extremely uncomfortable to wear for long periods of time, and may cause eye discomfort and even physical damage; while the first-generation iPhone has never had problems that violate human usage habits (excluding software operation levels).
Battery life and weight are the biggest shortcomings of Vision Pro. They are so short that they involve the most extensive human use experience and operating habits, and are not just defects in product design. Without revolutionary innovations in battery, semiconductor, heat dissipation and other fields, it is difficult to see Vision Pro being able to solve them in subsequent update iterations.
In general, Vision Pro does not show a unique advantage over other computing devices on the long board, but on the short board it has fatal flaws that are difficult to solve in a short time. The high price is only its most insignificant shortcoming.
Therefore, although the Vision Pro and the original iPhone have similarities in product features and reviews, it is difficult to compare the fate of the two. It has only been three months since Vision Pro went on sale, and the market discussion has almost disappeared, which also shows that it is very far away from the needs of ordinary users.
What will be the fate of Vision Pro?
On April 29, well-known technology reporter Mark Gurman said that the release of Apple’s Vision Pro successor may be postponed to the end of 2026, but before launching the second-generation product, Apple must find ways to reduce costs, “As far as I know, Apple is still confused about how to reduce costs.”
Gurman also said that Apple plans to launch a new upgraded visionOS 2.0 operating system for Vision Pro this year, but it is not expected to bring revolutionary changes. The next big move for the Vision Pro will be international expansion, with Apple preparing to introduce it to the Chinese market.
Similarly, comparing the development history of the iPhone, one year after the first-generation iPhone was launched, Apple introduced the iPhone 3G in June 2008, which greatly made up for the shortcomings in network speed, and sales increased by 7 times.
If the iteration speed of Vision Pro is so slow, it may be difficult to maintain enough popularity in the market to promote its sales growth. The industry's current sales forecast for the year has been reduced from the initial million units to hundreds of thousands of units – Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple has reduced Vision Pro shipments in 2024 to 400,000-450,000 units.
Without the stimulation of new products, such a low number of users would be difficult to attract developers to develop new applications for Vision Pro, ultimately forming a vicious cycle.
From a technical point of view, Vision Pro is undoubtedly very innovative, but in terms of solving user pain points and improving entertainment and work efficiency, it does not show revolutionary advantages and is not the same as the original iPhone.
For Apple, a global technology giant, there is almost no need to consider marketing issues. As long as the product is not bad, even if it is expensive, users will pay for it. They have proven this countless times.
The only thing Apple needs to consider is what users really need and how to achieve it. The latter is a technical issue, while the former is a product philosophy issue. It is very pure, but the answer is extremely difficult.
From the establishment of the Apple car project to its abandonment, it proves that Apple knows what users want, but it cannot achieve it.
Vision Pro is another situation. Apple has achieved “Only Apple can do” innovation, but it seems not sure about “what users need”. Whether or not this question can be truly answered will be fundamental in determining the fate of Vision Pro.
