Gamingdeputy news on September 26, according to analysis published by Cui Dongshu’s personal public account,In the past two years, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries have been highly prosperous. The demand for batteries has grown rapidly, and the proportion of new energy vehicle batteries installed in vehicles has declined..
Due to the rising prices of nickel and cobalt, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries have experienced differentiated growth. Lithium iron phosphate batteries account for 68% of the total, becoming a recent growth hotspot. As plug-in hybrids driven by policies continue to strengthen, the trend of pure electric vehicles weakens.The demand for battery installation in electric vehicles has increased to a certain extent, but in the long run, it is expected to continue to be slower than the growth of the total vehicle volume..
1. The proportion of power batteries installed in vehicles continues to decline.
Cui Dongshu believes that,HeadThe proportion of front-end power battery production that is installed in vehicles is constantly decreasing., the production battery installation rate of power battery vehicles will reach 76% in 2020, 70% in 2021, 54% in 2022, and 51% in 2023. Among them, the proportion of ternary batteries installed in vehicles is also gradually decreasing, from 80% to 49% in 2023, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in vehicles has dropped from 71% to 54%. Both are overproduction There is greater performance pressure relative to inventory.
With the development of energy storage and other industries, especially the current world energy crisis, the demand for batteries in energy storage and other industries has grown rapidly, resulting in a significant decline in the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles.
The growth rate of power batteries in 2021 and 2022 is lower than the growth rate of complete vehicles. This year’s growth rate of power batteries is basically the same as the growth rate of complete vehicles.
2. The proportion of three-yuan batteries installed in domestically sold models with certificates has dropped significantly.
Cui Dongshu said,The growth in demand for power battery installation in vehicles fluctuates. Demand increased by 10% in 2019; in 2020, 64GWh of power batteries were installed in domestically sold models, with demand increasing by 2%; in 2021, 155GWh of power batteries were installed in vehicles, with demand increasing by 143%; in 2022, 295GWh was installed in vehicles, with demand increasing by 91%; from January to 2023 In August, 219GWh was installed and demand increased by 35%.
Among them, ternary batteries increased by 21% in 2019; dropped by 7% in 2020; increased by 91% in 2021; increased by 49% in 2022; and 5% year-on-year in January-August 2023. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have a relatively large growth rate, with an increase of 20% in 2020; an increase of 227% in 2021; an increase of 130% in 2022; and a 56% increase from January to August in 2023.
The installed volume of power batteries in 2022 will be 295GWh, a year-on-year increase of 91%. Among them, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 110GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49%. The installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 184GWh, a year-on-year increase of 130%.
The installed volume of power batteries in vehicles from January to August 2023 was 219GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35%. Among them, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 69GWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 150GWh, a year-on-year increase of 56%.
3. Demand for automotive batteries continues to grow strongly
Passenger car battery demand growth continues to be strong, the battery demand for pure electric passenger cars will increase by 28% in 2023, while the battery demand for plug-in hybrid passenger cars will increase by 121%, continuing to grow strongly. Battery demand for passenger cars is relatively sluggish. The demand for batteries for special vehicles is also growing rapidly.
Judging from the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles, the demand structure of power batteries has been changing rapidly in recent years. In 2020, pure electric passenger cars will still rank first, pure electric buses second, and pure electric special vehicles third, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars will only rank fourth. This year, pure electric passenger cars still maintain the first place, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars have risen to second place, pure electric special vehicles have risen to third place, and pure electric buses have dropped to fourth place. .
recent years,The pure electric bus market has declined sharply, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars have shown a rapid upward trend. Pure electric special vehicles have maintained a relatively stable battery consumption of around 7%..
At present, pure electric buses have dropped from 18% to a cumulative level of 1% in 2023, a drop of 17 percentage points. The battery usage of plug-in hybrid passenger cars has grown relatively rapidly. It has now risen from 7% to 16%, an increase of 9%, while pure electric cars have increased by 8%, forming a new passenger car market accounting for more than 92%. Absolutely core battery demand characteristics.
4. Automobile certificate output
According to the battery capacity of the certificate, the output of certificate products in August 2023 is 744,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20%, of which pure electric passenger cars increased by 6% and plug-in hybrid passenger cars increased by 60%. Pure electric special vehicles only increased by 18% year-on-year, and this output data seems low.
5. Demand for passenger car batteries continues to grow strongly
The installed batteries of passenger cars sold at home and abroad nationwide were 31.82 million kWh in August and 202.27 million kWh from January to August, showing strong growth overall, with a growth rate of 53%.
According to the Passenger Car Sales Association, the battery demand corresponding to the passenger car sales is showing a strong trend. Considering that the battery demand in the same period in August was 23.25 million kWh, the current sales demand in August of 31.82 million kWh is already very high, hitting a record high in August. .
From the perspective of vehicle companies,BYD and Tesla will account for 43% of battery demand in 2023due to BYD’s obvious advantages in battery manufacturing, BYD is still growing strongly.
Both Tesla and BYD use higher batteries for pure electric passenger cars.
BYD’s plug-in hybrid models have obvious scale advantages.
Ideal for strong growth performance.
6. Supporting battery companies are far from fully competing
Over the past few years,The competitive landscape of the battery market has not changed significantly.As the technological progress of the power battery market is relatively slow, the scale growth characteristics are relatively obvious.therefore, battery companies have obtained strong growth characteristics in production and vehicle installations..
The original battery pattern has not changed significantly. Whoever invests more will gain a larger market share. Therefore, the expansion performance of major battery companies has continued to be strong; while small and medium-sized battery companies also rely on technology or other aspects. Breakthroughs provide opportunities for certain growth. Therefore, the battery landscape should be said to be relatively stable overall amid rapid growth.
However, the opportunities for changes in the battery industry are relatively large in the future. In the future, it will become increasingly obvious that vehicle companies will manufacture batteries or vehicle-related companies will jointly manufacture batteries. Battery companies will gradually form core supporting products for vehicles.
At present, the demand for high-end electric vehicles in the market is not very strong, but there is a greater demand for upgrading “Laotoule” to small and micro cars and low-end family transportation. Especially affected by the epidemic, the market has a strong demand for A0-class cars and A00-class cars. The demand for high-end cars is getting higher and higher.
From the perspective of supply chain issues, vehicle companies will become increasingly powerful in the future, and their control over battery companies and the upstream industrial chain will be further strengthened. At the same time, their control over downstream brand marketing capabilities will also be further strengthened. Under the new energy system, the characteristics of “the whole vehicle is king” will continue to be reflected.
7. Lithium iron phosphate batteries need to be improved
The current main battery energy density range for pure electric vehicles is between 125 and 160. Especially in 2023, the outstanding performance is that the proportion of 140 to 160 batteries reaches 36%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points.
Models with a battery energy density of 160 or above accounted for 19%, a significant decrease compared to 31% in 2020. This is mainly due to the decrease in energy density caused by the substitution of ternary lithium iron phosphate batteries. Products with energy density below 125 have also seen a slight decline, from 14% in 2020 to 8% currently.
8. Battery enterprise structure
The competitive landscape of battery companies has resulted in the relatively strong characteristics of CATL and BYD.levy. At present, the gap between CATL and BYD is constantly narrowing. BYD’s share has increased from 15% in 2020 to 29%, an increase of 14 percentage points; while CATL’s share has dropped by about 6 percentage points, and other battery companies The proportion has also shown a significant decline.
In addition, battery companies have formed an increasingly prominent feature of the aggregation effect of leading companies. Gamingdeputy found from this,The proportion of CATL and BYD has increased from 65% for the first two companies in 2020 to 72%, and the space for other companies is currently only 28%.
The product differentiation and advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are obvious, and BYD stands out. The share of CATL’s lithium iron batteries has been surpassed by BYD since the beginning of this year. Yiwei Lithium Energy, Zhongxin Aviation, and Zhengli New Energy have significantly improved.
Due to BYD’s comprehensive transformation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the advantages of CATL’s ternary batteries are even more obvious.